A.J. Green may miss more than the first two games of the season, so is he now too risky to take in fantasy drafts?
After he underwent ankle surgery near the start of training camp, Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green was expected to miss at least the first two regular-season games. Further news had been non-existent before John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported Green was in a walking boot on Sunday.
In a fantasy mailbag piece published on Monday, Jay Morrison of The Athletic (subscription required) reported a return in Week 3 is a best-case scenario for the seven-time Pro Bowler.
Green played just nine games in 2018, due to a toe injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. His numbers were typically good in those nine games though (46 receptions on 77 targets for 694 yards and six touchdowns), yielding a 16-game projection of 82 catches (137 targets) for 1,234 yards and 11 touchdowns. Remove the game he was injured in, where he had one catch for seven yards, and the full season projection jumps to 90 catches (152 targets) for 1,374 yards and 12 touchdowns over the remaining eight games. The catches and targets would have been the third-most in his career, with the second-most yards and the highest touchdown total of his career.
Of course Green is now 31 years old, with a third season in the last four set to be abbreviated by an injury. He also had zero catches of 40-plus yards for the first-time last year, but his yards per catch (15.1) and yards per target (9.0) were in line with the best seasons of his career.
Green’s fantasy ADP (12 team standard leagues, via Fantasy Football Calculator), fell from pick 3.09 on July 30 to pick 4.12 on Aug. 4. He has since dropped into the fifth round, to pick 5.06 (WR22) as of Tuesday morning. Fantasy Pros ADP consensus has Green in a similar range, at WR24 and overall pick No. 56. In PPR, Green falls down a couple of spots overall.
In a 10-team, two-quarterback, PPR league with 25-man rosters earlier this month, I took Green at No. 63 overall (pick 6.03). He was worth the flier there, at least partially based on the size of the rosters. I also already had Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, and Calvin Ridley as my top three wide receivers, so Green is a worthy stash on my bench for the first few weeks.
Even with the prospect of more than two missed games, Green is not someone to strictly avoid if you haven’t drafted yet and it’s not panic time if you already drafted him as long as you have other good options to use. If his ADP starts to move down into WR3 range, the reward will outweigh the risk for those that can cover the missed games in their starting lineup.
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