The Dallas Cowboys are floundering, but Dak Prescott is playing the best ball of his career and should be mentioned in the MVP race.
For the first time in several seasons, there isn’t a clear-cut MVP favorite through 11 weeks. Yes, players like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Lamar Jackson all have great cases, but none has pulled away from one another. With six weeks left to go in the NFL season, that leaves the door open for another player, most likely a quarterback, to steal the award.
One player that should get more consideration for the honor is Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys. While his team is only 5-4, Prescott’s numbers and efficiency stack up with the very best quarterbacks in the league. Today, we are going to make a case for Prescott and why he should be in the MVP conversation after 11 weeks.
Let’s start with the raw numbers. In his team’s 11 games, Prescott is completing more than 68 percent of his passes as he has thrown for 2,777 yards with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He’s also added another 175 yards on the ground to go along with his three rushing touchdowns. Of all qualifying passers, he has the ninth-highest passer rating at 102.4. However, that is only the beginning of the story.
Let’s take a look at another common stat for quarterbacks; QBR presented by ESPN. In 2018, the league’s leader in QBR was Patrick Mahomes, who went on to win the MVP award. In 2017, Tom Brady finished third in QBR and won the award. Matt Ryan was the top-rated passer in QBR in 2016 and… you guessed it.. he won the MVP award that season, too. If nothing else, QBR is a pretty good indicator of how well a quarterback is playing in a given season.
That is why it is no surprise that Prescott is currently ranked No. 1 in QBR in 2019 (78.8), just ahead of Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes. While the Cowboys haven’t had the same level of team success as the Seahawks or the Chiefs, Prescott is currently carrying Dallas to contention.
Another metric that shows how well the Cowboys’ offense is performing with Prescott under center in points per drive. Only the Baltimore Ravens (2.85) are averaging more points per possession than the Dallas Cowboys (2.60). The only real difference between the two has been the difference in their placekickers as both Jackson and Prescott are thriving this season.
You can find dozens of other quarterback statistics, and all of them will say about the same; Dak Prescott is one of the league’s best passers this season. He is second in passing yards, yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, etc. Everywhere you look, Prescott ranks among the top two or three in your favorite quarterback statistic.
Now that we see the statistical case for Prescott let’s look at a few visuals. We will first start with his passing chart through nine games. As you can see below, Prescott is having success throwing the ball all over the field, especially towards the sideline. He’s also become a more polished passer in the middle field, as well.
Here is #Cowboys QB Dak Prescott’s passing chart through Week 10: pic.twitter.com/q8p1iHYqkL
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) November 12, 2019
One of the reasons that Prescott’s passer rating isn’t as high as players such as Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers is due to the interception totals. While eight is too many at this point in the season, most of them have been flukey. Take a look at the All-22 of every one of Prescott’s interceptions from 2019 and decide for yourself how many interceptions are his fault:
Here is every interception by #Cowboys QB Dak Prescott in 2019: pic.twitter.com/TMCRqnLGxv
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) November 13, 2019
Unfortunately, here is the ugly truth for Dak Prescott and his MVP chances. For him to have any shot of being named the MVP, the Cowboys are going to need to win ten or more games. Even then, the odds of voters giving the award to the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the NFC isn’t great. The last MVP award winner to not clinch a first-round bye was Adrian Peterson in 2012 after he finished the season with 2,097 rushing yards. Prescott is having a great year, but it isn’t historic by any measure.
While Prescott winning the award would validate everything he has done in Dallas, it certainly isn’t the goal for him or the Cowboys. Dallas is just trying to find a way to get through the season and clinch a playoff berth. Luckily for them, they have a quarterback playing at a high enough level that he may be able to drag a subpar team (and coaching staff) to hosting playoff games in January. That, in itself, should be a reason to consider voting for him for the league’s MVP award.