Did Lamar Jackson expose the New England Patriots defense as a unit piling up statistics against inferior quarterbacks, or was Week 9 merely an off day for the league’s most voracious unit?
Bill Belichick’s defenses usually start the season slow before kicking into another gear near the end of the season, showing off more intricate looks that confuse whichever helpless quarterback has to face the New England Patriots in January.
At least, that was the formula last season. For much of the Fall, analysts wondered if the Patriots poor results on defense would undermine their Super Bowl hopes, but they embarrassed Philip Rivers and Jared Goff en route to yet another Super Bowl victory.
It seemed like they had picked up where they left off in February, as the Patriots won their first eight games of the season without ever giving up more than 14 points in a single game. New England forced at least four turnovers in a whopping four of those games, establishing themselves as the most adept defense in the NFL at making plays.
And then Lamar Jackson came.
The Baltimore Ravens second-year quarterback added to his legend by making play after play against a Patriots defense that suddenly looked vulnerable. Jackson led the Ravens to a 37-20 victory, scoring 23 more points than any other team who had faced the 2019 Patriots.
He posted a 107.7 QB Rating with two touchdowns, and star running back Mark Ingram added 115 yards on the ground of his own. By taking care of the football and focusing on a smashmotuh running game, Jackson and the Ravens may have found the blueprint to beating the Patriots. Beat them at their own game. If a team can control the ball against New England and play a clean game with a smart quarterback under center who doesn’t panic, the Patriots can no longer thrive on mistakes.
The key to beating the Patriots may not be that simple, but, if it is, Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles could use the Ravens as an example of how to beat the Patriots. (Then again, Doug Pederson already has experience beating Belichick in a big game.)
Even after Jackson cooked them, the Patriots are still first in the league in turnovers forced, points allowed, yards allowed, and yards per pass attempt allowed (4.1). All signs indicate their performance against the Ravens was an anomaly, caused by facing one of the best players in the entire NFL.
Yet the Patriots also have to admit they’ve benefited from pouncing on mistakes from horrible quarterback play. Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Colt McCoy aren’t exactly renowned for their decision-making and have been among the worst quarterbacks in the league this season, so the Patriots may have simply been piling up stats on defense against some of the worst passers this league has to offer.
Moreover, because many of these quarterbacks are young and struggle with high interception rates, they may have had even more trouble than the average quarterback at dissecting Belichick’s defense. So when the Pats were facing a quarterback who can actually read defenses and make wise decisions with the football, they got burned badly.
The good news is that while New England’s Week 11 opponent under center, Wentz, has the talent to be an MVP-caliber player when he’s at his best, he has the same issues with decision-making. He misses open receivers, forces balls into coverage, and struggles with consistently making the right read. However, he’s also the same quarterback who has thrown only four interceptions this season and had back-to-back QB Ratings over 100.0 in 2017 and ’18.
Wentz looks like a great test to see where the Patriots lie. If the Pats defense is fraudulent, then Wentz can make them look more ordinary than amazing. But if the Patriots defense is indeed among the best in the NFL against the pass, then they could have another turnover-filled field day against an underperforming Eagles team that is running out of time to live up to its prodigious talent.