Let’s solve the single most important issue of 2019 — kickoffs in the NFL.
Kickoffs are stupid.
It is more and more of an undeniable fact as we trudge on week by week, touchback by touchback. If you have read my previous work you know I hate kicking in football more than Astros players must hate hitting without knowing what pitch is coming. If you don’t agree with me that is fine, you are entitled to your opinion, but also you’re wrong and I hate you.
Now let’s look at the facts.
In 2017, 56.6 percent of kickoffs ended in a touchback. The teams line up, the kicker Christiano Ronoldos it to the other end zone, the players jog off the field and fans are somehow satisfied knowing those three minutes of their lives are gone forever.
According to research by Jon Bois of Chart Party (who BTW makes the absolute best videos if you enjoy sports and stats) between 2011 and 2016, about 1 in every 300 kickoffs resulted in a touchdown. That is .0033% of the time for those of you keeping score or roughly the same odds as flat-earthers give for the earth actually being round. Only 2.6% of kickoffs are returned passed the returning team’s own 40 yard line.
But here is the real kicker (HAHA, this stuff writes itself): field position after the return doesn’t matter nearly as much as you’d think. Beginning a drive from between the 40 and 49 yard line results in 2.10 points per possession and beginning between the 35 and 39 yard line results in 2.37 points per possession (I know, I’m confused, too). I could go deeper but as the great Nacho Libre once said, “let’s get down to the nitty gritty.” Whether you begin the drive from the 25, 35 or 45, the difference in expected points is minimal.
So we’ve established that kickoffs typically end in nothing happening, and when something does happen, it is almost insignificant to the outcome of the game.
Perhaps most notably, kickoffs are dumber than Dumb and Dumberer (yes, I am talking about the sequel) because not only do they not really affect the game but they are more dangerous than a normal play. Again, according to my favorite guy Jon Bois of Chart Party, kickoffs result in concussions 1 out of every 157 plays whereas all other plays result in concussions 1 out of 241 plays.
The only reason to keep kickoffs in the game as opposed to just starting the ball at the 25 yard line is the onside kick. We want teams who are down late to be able to score and then somehow get the ball back and score some more – because scoring is as fun as hitting a change-up when you know it’s coming.
So thankfully, by the grace of whatever all powerful being you may or may not believe in, the solution to kickoffs already exists.
Greg Schiano, who just days ago returned as the Rutgers University football coach after a few years coaching elsewhere, came up with the solution years ago after one of his players, Eric LeGrand, suffered a severe spinal injury on a kickoff.
The solution I am about to divulge is so tasty, and with such perfect texture that you are going to want two spoons to gobble it up as fast as you can and then not brush your teeth for days just so the flavor can linger. Here goes.
The Solution
After a score, the scoring team retains possession of the ball at their own 30 yard line and are given a 4th and 15. More than likely, teams would punt which is far less dangerous than a kickoff because both teams are starting from the line of scrimmage as opposed to running full speed at each other from opposite ends of the field. If the team who just scored wants to retain possession, they have to complete a 4th and 15.
How freaking genius is that? Instead of an onside kick which has nothing to do with the rest of the game, the offense has to complete a real football play in order to get the ball back. When I first read this I smiled with the same amazement I had in 5th grade when I found out what sex was. This isn’t the greatest invention since sliced bread, this is better than sliced bread – I’ll gladly stuff whole loaves of bread into my mouth if it means never having to watch another kickoff.
So let’s all go bang on garbage cans outside of Roger Goodell’s house so he knows he needs to make this happen like today. (And of course so the Astros know an off-speed pitch is coming. Boom Roasted. Again!)
Who’s with me?