The New England Patriots’ record may not show it, but their offense is an issue. Bill Belichick’s mind isn’t going to resolve it.
The NFL postseason is all about which teams get hot at the right time. Offensively, the New England Patriots have been lukewarm all year.
The defending Super Bowl champions appeared to have a relatively easy route back to the granddaddy of all football games before the 2019 campaign kicked off. Tied for the second-easiest schedule in the league in terms of opponents’ 2018 win percentage (.473), things were looking up. After getting off to an 8-0 start, Bill Belichick’s squad sat atop the AFC.
Then, the Baltimore Ravens happened. In a 37-20 win over New England, likely NFL MVP Lamar Jackson put the league on notice. John Harbaugh and Co. also highlighted a weakness in the Patriots’ offense: a rattled Tom Brady.
It’s common knowledge that Brady isn’t the most mobile quarterback in the league, but he moves quite well within the pocket. That Baltimore was able to sack him twice isn’t anything special, but 10 total hits on Brady throughout the game made him feel pressure all night. Brady threw 46 passes for 285 yards, a 6.2 yards per attempt average. One of the greatest signal-callers of all-time was a mere mortal.
New England would go on to win back-to-back games, but scored under 20 points in both contests. Brady completed 43 of his 84 passes over that stretch (51.2 percent), and held a 4.83 YPA. Despite that, the team’s top-notch defense stepped up.
The Patriots’ three most recent games have been a mixed bag. In a 28-22 loss to the Houston Texans, Brady was solid. The following week against Kansas City, he was under constant pressure and couldn’t pull off his usual fourth-quarter magic against a suddenly stout Chiefs defense. Last Sunday’s 34-13 victory over the lowly Cincinnati Bengals was a “get right” game for the team, yet Brady continued to play a pedestrian brand of football. His stat line: 15-for-29, 128 yards, and a pair of touchdowns.
This recent stretch by Brady and the rest of the Patriots’ offense represents a larger problem. Through 14 games, the 42-year-old is completing a career-low 60.1 percent of his passes (if you throw out his three-attempt 2000 season). His 50.1 QBR is by far the worst it’s been since the stat was invented. He’s less efficient on a per-pass and per-game basis than he’s been in years.
As a whole, New England’s offense is 18th in yards per game. Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric ranks the unit 14th overall, with a No. 15 rank for passing and a No. 16 one for rushing. Although the stable of Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead and Brandon Bolden is 19th in yardage on the ground, the quartet’s efficiency is quite bad. They’re in the bottom five in yards per carry at 3.7.
For nearly two decades now, the Patriots have been the juggernaut of the NFL. Boasting a lethal offensive attack fueled by a solid running game and one of the game’s legendary quarterbacks in Brady, Belichick hasn’t had to change much of anything. On the other side of the ball, New England has ranked among the league’s best for the most part over the years. That certainly holds true this season, as the Pats pace the NFL in both yards allowed and points surrendered per game.
The difference this year has been the offensive fallout. The running game is no longer fundamentally sound and fluid. Brady is still a solid quarterback, but both the numbers and the eye test indicate he’s not what he used to be by any means. The loss of Rob Gronkowski to retirement left a serious void with an impact felt tenfold. Injuries have ravaged the offensive line responsible for keeping an aging leader upright.
Bill Belichick is perhaps the greatest coach in NFL history. He and Brady, easily a top-three quarterback ever and the best to ever do it in the eyes of most, have gone on a monumental run. Regardless of what happens over the next few months — or few years, for that matter — their legacies are set in stone.
Sure, not all of the credit can go to the offense. New England’s defenses over the years have been spectacular. There’s been some luck involved, but that’s the case with all championship teams. At the end of the day, the substance is there.
As things currently stand, the Patriots have an inside track to secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC. This will ensure a first-round bye and a home playoff game the weekend after. Despite the lack of supreme talent around him and some inefficiencies both in the running game and along the patchwork offensive line, Tom Brady is still Tom Brady. We can’t entirely count him out.
Things are going to have to turn around, though, and quickly. Belichick can only do so much and if the first 15 weeks of the NFL season have been any indication — it’s that the empire could be falling soon.