The New England Patriots and the New Orleans Saints will play on Wild Card Weekend this year. Neither team has to feel good about their Super Bowl chances.
Since the NFL playoffs expanded to 12 teams, the most important thing a team can have isn’t having home-field advantage, but rather, a first-round bye. Sure, having an entire conference theoretically run through your building is a wonderful thing, but it isn’t nearly as important as having to not play a third postseason game before the Super Bowl.
Two teams that drew the short straw when it came to landing a first-round bye in the NFL playoffs were the New England Patriots of the AFC and the New Orleans Saints of the NFC. Both teams will be hosting the No. 6 seeds on Wild Card Weekend as their conference’s respective No. 3 seeds. While both teams are solid, not having a first-round bye hurts their Super Bowl aspirations.
With the Patriots hosting the No. 6 Tennessee Titans on Saturday night and the Saints hosting the sixth-seeded Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon, which quasi-Super Bowl contender was hurt more by not having a first-round bye: the Patriots or the Saints? Let’s look at what a semi-realistic path to the Super Bowl would look like for either playoff team and find out.
For New England, they’ll host a physical, punch-you-in-your-mouth Titans team, led by running back Derrick Henry, quarterback Ryan Tannehill and wide receiver A.J. Brown. Henry is the closest thing we’ve seen to Adrian Peterson in his prime with his physical running style. Tannehill has never played quarterback this well in his life. Brown is an emerging superstar at wide receiver.
And that’s just the Titans offense. We all know the Titans’ bread and butter is defense, led by defensive lineman Jurrell Casey and defensive-minded head coach Mike Vrabel, who played his best football for Bill Belichick in New England. While no franchise defines 9-7 more than the Titans, they are more than capable of ending the Patriots’ dynasty in Foxborough on Saturday.
Should New England advance to the AFC Divisional Round, they would face Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on the road at Arrowhead as the No. 2 seed. While New England defeated the Chiefs at Arrowhead in overtime of the AFC Championship last year, Kansas City finally has a defense that isn’t a total eyesore under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. They’ll be ready.
If New England plays in yet another AFC Championship Game, it most likely won’t be at Gillette Stadium, although it would be so New England for them to host a No. 4 or No. 5 seed in the AFC title game. The Patriots would crush either the Houston Texans or the Buffalo Bills in that extreme hypothetical here. In truth, they’d have to go to the Charm City to face the No. 1 Baltimore Ravens.
Baltimore was the best team in football this season, going 14-2 with quarterback Lamar Jackson as the NFL MVP. The Ravens aren’t just a gimmicky plus-one offense, as they play elite defense and can match the Patriots tit for tat on special teams. Though Baltimore has never hosted an AFC Championship game, no team in the AFC has given the Patriots more trouble than the Ravens.
Overall, the Patriots’ path to Super Bowl LIV down in Miami Gardens seems too farfetched to be a reality this season. That being said, if there is any team in NFL that has the culture to find a way to win in January no matter what, it is New England. We’d be foolish to count them out, but if there’s ever a time to be a fool in the rain, it is Jan. 2020.
As for New Orleans, the Saints are the better team than the Patriots entering the postseason. They match up well with seemingly every team in the NFC. The Saints shouldn’t fear any team they go up against this January. The problem is historically New Orleans is a laughable franchise away from the Superdome in the postseason. They have won road playoff win in franchise history.
One, and only one. That came in 2013 when Drew Brees and the Saints beat Nick Foles and the Chip Kelly Philadelphia Eagles. New Orleans should have had another in 2017, but the Minneapolis Miracle brought a swift end to that. It’s only fitting that the Saints’ Wild Card matchup on Sunday afternoon will be against Mike Zimmer’s Vikings.
Sure, of all four Wild Card matchups, the Saints should feel the most confident about beating their opponent of anybody. I mean, the best teams the Vikings beat this season were the Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys. Plus, no quarterback shrinks on a big stage like Kirk Cousins other than Andy Dalton. New Orleans should beat Minnesota, but no, it won’t be easy.
Even if the Saints clobber the Vikings in their dome game, it’ll be the frigid frozen tundra of Lambeau Field awaiting them in the NFC Divisional Round. No, the Packers aren’t anything special this year, as they won a ton of games as a finesse team under first-year head coach Matt LaFleur. Obviously, Sean Payton will have a coaching mismatch to exploit.
However, how lively will Brees’ arm look in Green Bay in mid-January? Let’s not forget how freaking difficult it is to win on the road in the playoffs at Green Bay. Of course, the Packers still have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, poised to make at least one last run at getting back to the Super Bowl before he exits his prime. This one is close, but Green Bay would have the edge.
And should the Saints get road playoff victory No. 2 in franchise history, they’ll likely have to play a San Francisco 49ers team who beat them in their own building on the road in Santa Clara. No, Levi’s Stadium isn’t a great home-field advantage, but the 49ers are a tough matchup nonetheless. The Saints might be able to win a road game, but two would be pushing it.
Should the 49ers falter in the Divisional Round game vs. the winner of the No. 4 Philadelphia Eagles vs. the No. 5 Seattle Seahawks, there are no guarantees that the Saints would beat either team in an NFC Championship game at home.
Philadelphia is the clearly easier matchup here because the Eagles are completely broken down physically. They can win a game this postseason, but probably not more than that. As for the Seahawks, they have never played a normal game in the Pete Carroll era. He is the coach and Russell Wilson is the quarterback that can win an NFC Championship on the road in New Orleans.
Overall, the Patriots have a harder and more unrealistic path to the Super Bowl when compared with the Saints. But New England has a more proven track record in the postseason and we can trust the Patriots to win road playoff games. Expect both teams to bow out in the Divisional Round, but do you really want to face Belichick when he can play the role of underdog? Me neither.