The San Francisco 49ers defense will sack Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers at least four times and secure a place in Super Bowl LIV (54) by beating the Packers in Sunday’s NFC championship game in San Francisco.
The NFC championship should be controlled by the 49ers defense. What will that mean from a fantasy standpoint?
DEFENSE
According to ESPN’s FFL PPR Scoring System, the 49ers had the 3rd best defense in the NFL during the regular season. They averaged 10.3 fantasy points per game (FPPG). Only New England (14.1) and Pittsburgh (11.3) averaged more than 10 FPPG.
The strength of San Francisco’s defense is the defensive line. Nick Bosa, Sheldon Day, DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead plus the now healthy Dee Ford create havoc for opposing offensive lines. In the 37-8 regular season win over Green Bay, the 49ers sacked Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers four times. They also held the Green Bay running attack to 116 yards on 28 carries.
Green Bay’s defense finished in the middle of the pack in fantasy football and has shown that it is vulnerable to deep pass plays. They did sack Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson five times with two a piece recorded by Preston Smith and Ze’Darius Smith in their playoff win against Seattle last weekend.
OFFENSE
The two offenses are amazingly similar in that each team has three primary fantasy football scoring weapons. Neither quarterback was the leading scorer for his team and finished in the middle of the pack in quarterback ratings.
Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is s former Californian, looking for payback after the Packers’ 37-8 loss during the regular season. The 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo is hoping to win the second playoff game of his career. Rodgers finished the regular season with 17.4 FPPG and Garoppolo averaged 15.5 FPPG.
San Francisco’s most dangerous offensive weapon is tight end George Kittle. He not only catches passes, but it normally requires two or three defenders to tackle him. Kittle has been battling some nagging injuries, but there is no way the 49ers’ enthusiastic leader will miss Sunday’s game. Kittle averaged 15.9 FPPG and caught 85 passes for 1083 yards and five touchdowns during the regular season.
Green Bay’s most dangerous offensive weapon is wide receiver Davante Adams. Though he missed part of the season due to injuries, he still managed to catch 83 passes for 997 yards and five touchdowns. He finished with a 17.7 FPPG average.
One big difference in Green Bay’s offense this season is they have a featured running back. Aaron Jones emerged as the Packers leading scorer in fantasy football with 314.8 points and a 19.7 FPPG average. Jones ran for 16 touchdowns and 1084 yards.
San Francisco’s running game features three players. Running backs Raheem Mostet, Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida share to load and combined for 19 touchdowns this season.
If there is an offensive wild card in this game, it is San Francisco’s No. 2 scorer in fantasy football – wide receiver Deebo Samuel. He is a dual threat as a rusher and pass receiver. He has six touchdowns this season (three running the ball and three via pass receptions.) Samuel’s 12.6 FPPG average doesn’t do justice to his capacity to gain big chunks of yardage after a catch.
PREDICTION
The 49ers are playing at home and their head coach, Kyle Shanahan, has warned them that this is a different Packers team than the one they beat 37-8 during the regular season. Aaron Rodgers will make the game interesting, but San Francisco has been the best prepared team for games this season. San Francisco 24, Green Bay 19.