The NFL’s offseason activity is slowing down with free agency and the draft behind us. Here are 10 observations as we head towards summer.
10. Deshaun Watson has to be the league’s unhappiest superstar QB
Watson must be wondering what happened. The Texans traded away DeAndre Hopkins for little return, signed receiver Randall Cobb and safety Eric Murray to above-market deals and allowed corner Johnathan Joseph, nose tackle D.J.Reader, and running backs Carlos Hyde and Lamar Miller to leave in free agency. A brutal offseason for Watson and Texans fans.
9. Arizona might be the most-improved team in the league
The Cardinals still have holes across the roster, but they’re going to be a factor. Second-year quarterback Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury appear a formidable duo. Factor in the additions of star receiver DeAndre Hopkins and do-it-all rookie linebacker Isaiah Simmons, and Arizona is building a fun team in the desert.
8. The NFC is absolutely loaded with heavyweights, including Tom Brady
While the AFC has little depth (more on that below), the NFC will have quality teams missing the playoffs even with the new format. One can easily build a case for the New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles to all win double-digit games. Great conference.
7. The AFC East is literally anybody’s to win
Here’s something which hasn’t been true for two decades: the AFC East is wide open. While Buffalo is the perceived favorite, the Patriots still have Bill Belichick. The Dolphins added ample talent in free agency before drafting Tua Tagovailoa. The Jets went 7-9 last year with Sam Darnold missing a month. No division is a tougher prediction.
6. Nobody played their free-agency cards worse than Jadeveon Clowney
Remember when Clowney was the top free-agent going into this class? Instead of securing a mega deal, both Clowney and agent Bus Cook are still waiting to end this embarrassment. At some point, the former No. 1 overall pick needs to swallow hard, sign a one-year deal and reset his market for 2021.
5. It’s still Baltimore and Kansas City in the AFC
With respect to the rest of the conference, the Ravens and Chiefs are the top tier with a considerable gap below them. Last year, Baltimore and Kansas City combined for a 26-6 record and the top two seeds. Now, Tom Brady is gone. The Bills are still green. The Steelers are a dark horse but Ben Roethlisberger is 38 years old. Barring injury, it’s a two-team race.
4. The Packers might be in for a very long season
Jordan Love in the first round? Aaron Rodgers is going to be motivated, which is great for Green Bay. However, he’s likely going to be in a foul mood after watching a half-dozen NFC contenders load up while the Packers gave him… Devin Funchess. Regression and an angry star is a bad combination.
3. Jacksonville is the leader in the clubhouse for Trevor Lawrence
The Jaguars are hoping Gardner Minshew works out. If he doesn’t, they can repurpose their helmets to have a tank on either side. Additionally, Jacksonville has a pair of 2021 first-round picks after trading cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the Los Angeles Rams. If the Jaguars need to move up, they have a ton of ammo.
2. The NFL schedule may not be impacted by COVID-19
Obviously coincidentally, but the NFL has fortunate timing in terms of the coronavirus. The Super Bowl was played right before the pandemic became nightly news stateside. Now, the league has months to figure out one contingency plan after the next for having a full season — with or without fans.
1. The Chiefs are the best bet to repeat in a long time
Want to find the top contenders? Look at the coach-quarterback combination. The Chiefs are the reigning champs largely because they have the best one. With Kansas City returning 20 of 22 starters, plus a solid draft class, it’s a loaded team. The Chiefs are still top dogs.
Power rankings
The best quarterbacks with multiple Super Bowl rings (as starter)
1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots (6 rings)
2. Joe Montana, San Francisco 49ers (4 rings)
3. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts/Denver Broncos (2 rings)
4. John Elway, Denver Broncos (2 rings)
5. Roger Staubach, Dallas Cowboys (2 rings)
6. Terry Bradshaw, Pittsburgh Steelers (4 rings)
7. Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys (3 rings)
8. Bart Starr, Green Bay Packers (2 rings; 5 titles)
9. Eli Manning, New York Giants (2 rings)
10. Jim Plunkett, Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders (2 rings)
Quotable
“Obviously I want to be a Chief for a long time. I want to have a contract that says that and I can go out there and know I have that security. I understand and trust the Chiefs organization and everybody in it that they’re gonna handle it the right way.”
– Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes on his eventual extension with Kansas City
Mahomes’ contract is eventually going to get done, but it won’t only make news in Kansas City. It’ll matter in Dallas and Houston as well, with the Cowboys and Texans trying to lock up Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson, respectively.
When Mahomes signs, his deal will be the ceiling. The top deal currently is Russell Wilson ($35 million annually) while Jared Goff has the most guaranteed money ($110 million). Those will be the floors for each as they negotiate a new pact.
As for Mahomes, it’ll be fascinating to see the structure. He’s undoubtedly going to sign the largest deal in NFL history. The question is how both his side and general manager Brett Veach work the numbers, allowing Kansas City to keep talent around him.
Podcast
Random stat
In the 1981 playoffs, the San Diego Chargers beat the Miami Dolphins in the Orange Bowl amid sweltering heat. The following week, they fell to the Cincinnati Bengals in an AFC Championship Game dubbed the Freezer Bowl.
The difference in temperatures, including wind chill: 135 degrees.
Info learned this week
1. Trubisky decision paves way for Foles to start
On Saturday, the Chicago Bears told the world what they truly think of Mitch Trubisky.
The team declined his fifth-year option, making him a free agent after the upcoming season. This move, combined with the trade for Nick Foles, all but finishes his time in the Windy City.
Trubisky will have a chance to compete for his job this summer, but with his future no longer tied to the Bears, he’ll need to clearly outperform Foles for the job. Why? Because Foles is signed for three seasons. Chicago is far more invested in Foles at this juncture than Trubisky.
The Bears essentially named their starting quarterback over the weekend.
2. Dalton signing provides bit of pressure on Prescott
The Cowboys have a new quarterback in town. Andy Dalton is returning to his home state, signing a one-year deal for $7 million after being released by the Bengals only a few days ago.
While Dak Prescott is clearly the starter, owner/general manager Jerry Jones is buying himself some leverage. If Prescott doesn’t sign this offseason, he runs the risk of getting hurt and Dalton playing really well with the best supporting cast of his career.
In reality, Prescott probably signs before July 15 and Dalton ends up being a quality backup and nothing more. Still, for Jones, this both helps the roster and buys a cheap bargaining chip.
3. Jags are team to watch as summer rolls on
Jacksonville is rebuilding in a scorched-earth way. Yannick Ngakoue and Leonard Fournette are more valuable to the Jaguars as future draft picks compared to current production.
According to multiple sources, the Ngakoue situation has been untenable since last summer. The idea of him playing another year in Duval is borderline impossible. At 24 years old, he’s one of the better pass-rushers in football and arguably the best available. General manager Dave Caldwell should be able to net a quality return.
While Fournette would return less — especially after the team declined his fifth-year option — he’s still a good running back. There’s little doubt a team would send a mid-round pick for the former LSU dynamo.
Considering where the Jaguars are in their development, trading both before September makes the most sense.
4. NFL schedule set to be released this week
Want to know your team’s slate? You won’t have to wait much longer.
The NFL will release its 2020 regular-season schedule this week, doing so no later than Saturday. While we don’t know the official date yet, Thursday night is one to circle. The league typically releases the docket on that day in a primetime format.
Despite COVID-19, the league is still planning on playing a full 16-game schedule starting on Thursday, Sept. 10. Whether fans are in the stands is a great unknown but for now, the NFL is full-steam ahead.
5. Newton remains last QB piece to free-agency puzzle
Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton are signed. Cam Newton remains a free agent.
Newton, 30, was released last month by the Carolina Panthers. Despite being the 2015 NFL MVP and a quality quarterback in 2018, the former Auburn star is still without work. While his recent injury history — foot and shoulder surgeries — are concerning, the upside is legitimate. If Newton returns to form, he’s a borderline top-10 player at the game’s most important position.
But where does he fit? The Patriots appear committed to giving Jarrett Stidham a chance. If they don’t alter their stance, Newton is likely looking at a backup role.
The best spot could be the Jaguars. Jacksonville has no depth behind Gardner Minshew and should the second-year man falter, Newton provides one heck of an insurance policy.
History lesson
In Jan. 1988, Doug Williams became the first black quarterback to both start in and win a Super Bowl. Williams threw five touchdowns in a 42-10 rout of the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XXII, en route to being named the game’s MVP.
Williams broke down the ultimate barrier for the game’s grandest position. Since his landmark win, others such as Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes have followed in his footsteps.
Parting shot
Virtual minicamps are underway for all 32 clubs. Most won’t be greatly impacted. A few will.
Teams with new coaching staffs and/or quarterbacks are dealing with the toughest challenge. For signal-callers, the game is about rhythm, timing and chemistry. There’s no ability to get any of those things through Skype.
For the coaching staffs taking over, they have no ability to evaluate the talent left on the roster. It’s going to be a significant challenge implementing new schemes, working on technique or even understanding the players on their team before we get into August.
Any team dealing with a new start goes through an adjustment period. The old adage says it takes about half of a season. Without voluntary or mandatory minicamps, it may take even longer.