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Hayden Hurst is getting a fresh start with the Atlanta Falcons, but here’s why he’ll be a fantasy bust this year.
The Baltimore Ravens drafted two tight ends in the 2018 draft, and with the emergence or Mark Andrews last year first-round pick Hayden Hurst fell by the wayside. But an offseason trade to the Atlanta Falcons looks like a breath of fresh air for the South Carolina product, in real and fantasy football terms.
The Falcons lost tight end Austin Hooper in free agency to the Cleveland Browns. He had 75 receptions (on 97 targets) for 797 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games last year, on is way to finishing as TE7 in standard fantasy scoring and TE6 in full PPR. In full PPR, Hooper averaged the third-most fantasy points per game among tight ends (14.8).
Over the last two seasons, the Falcons have targeted the tight end position 106 (2018) and 121 times (2019). Hooper had 88 and 97 targets in the respective seasons, good for 83 and 80.2 percent shares of the tight end targets. So Hurst is stepping into a substantial role, and going back to Tony Gonzalez quarterback Matt Ryan has kept a good tight end involved.
Why Hayden Hurst will be a fantasy football bust in 2020
The Falcons should be throwing the ball plenty again this year, with over 600 attempts for quarterback Ryan a virtual lock. Wide receivers Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will be the top two targets, with Ridley perhaps in line for a Chris Godwin-style breakthrough this year. Still, there should be 90-100 targets available for Hurst over 16 games. No. 3 wide receiver Russell Gage stands as competition for targets in the short and intermediate areas of the field, and running back Todd Gurley is in line for a solid passing game role too.
Kyle Yates of Fantasy Pros sees Hurst as a top-five fantasy tight end in 2020, and there’s a strong case for that. A projection in that range puts upside into his current TE10 ADP in full PPR (12-team leagues), with a top-10 finish perhaps his floor.
A limited role and Andrews’ emergence in Baltimore led to Hurst being the odd-man out, with value to be extracted in a trade and a needed change of scenery. In this unique offseason Hurst has been traveling to get reps in with Ryan, which is helpful as much as it can be considered overstated.
Getting someone like George Kittle and Travis Kelce can be an advantage for fantasy owners, but without one of that group it’s generally worth waiting to draft a tight end. Hurst is one of the poster boys for that middle ground at the position this year, even with some embedded upside.
Even with all of that positive vibe, I see a wide range of outcomes for Hurst in 2020. And if I’m going to embrace a lot of risk-reward, as one would do when they wait to draft a tight end, I’d rather do it even later on someone like Jonnu Smith, Noah Fant, Blake Jarwin or T.J. Hockenson. Even a little above Hurst’s ADP at the position, I’d rather make a bet on Evan Engram’s health and upside.
Based on his upper-middle ground ADP, Hurst might be the only tight end a lot of fantasy owners come out of their draft or auction with this year in a normal size league.
With the bust potential that’s not easily seen, as he shifts down the pecking order for targets in line with Ridley reaching a new level, drafting Hurst is a push down the path to streaming the tight end position in 2020.