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With Dalvin Cook set to hold out, Alexander Mattison is now the No. 1 handcuff in fantasy football.
Dalvin Cook had a breakout season in 2019, with 1,135 rushing yards, 53 catches for 519 yards and 13 touchdowns (all rushing). But he also missed two games and was banged up for a few others, which opened up some opportunities for backups Alexander Mattison and Mike Boone.
Cook is entering the final year of of his contract, and absent a new “reasonable” deal he is set to hold out into training camp or beyond. A new CBA makes that decision a less than smart one, as he’d lose an accrued season if he holds out of camp and would not become an unrestricted free agent next March.
Given his injury history, drafting Cook in fantasy this year automatically comes with the notion of drafting his backup as a handcuff. Now, with a long holdout unlikely but possible, the idea has to practically be a priority for those who take Cook in the first round.
How has Dalvin Cook’s backup done in his place?
Cook missed 12 games with a torn ACL as a rookie in 2017. Jerick McKinnon stepped in, and from Week 5-Week 17 he was RB13 in standard fantasy scoring and RB10 in full PPR.
In 2018, when Cook missed five games with a hamstring issue, Latavius Murray got bumped up the depth chart. Narrowing to Week 5-Week 9, the four consecutive games Cook missed and his first game back, Murray had 353 rushing yards (4.8 yards per carry) with five rushing scores and 11 receptions. Over that span, Murray was RB7 in standard and full PPR.
In the two full games Cook missed in 2019 (Week 16 and 17), with Mattison also out with an ankle injury, Boone had 11 carries for 28 yards (Week 16) and 17 carries for 148 yards and a touchdown (Week 17). In a Week 15 blowout win over the Chargers, when Cook injured his shoulder and Mattison was out, Boone had 13 carries for 56 yards and two rushing touchdowns.
Entering this year, Mattison is clearly Cook’s backup
A third-round pick out of Boise State in 2019, Mattison averaged 4.6 yards per carry on an even 100 totes as a rookie. He didn’t produce a lot in the passing game, but he did catch 10 of his 12 targets for 82 yards. As Dave Richard of CBS Sports noted, Mattison was comparable to Cook last year in yards per carry (4.6 to 4.5 for Cook) catch rate (83.3 percent to 84.1 percent for Cook) and yards after contact per attempt (3.22 to 3.06 for Cook).
Cook’s ADP may start to edge down, but as of Tuesday morning he’s RB3 (pick 1.04) in full PPR (12 teams). In that same league size and scoring, Mattison is RB43 and pick 9.07. Shift to 12-team standard, and Cook is at the same ADP while Mattison is still RB43 but down to pick 10.05. If that feels backwards in terms of PPR and standard scoring ADP split, you’re not alone.
For those who don’t take the plunge with the Vikings’ lead back, Mattison’s appeal will be best weighed late in a draft against the other available options across multiple positions.
In any case, at least in the short-term, some fantasy steam has fallen off Cook. So the follow-up draft day investment in Mattison as the handcuff is now practically mandatory for those who’ll be on the fence.