Tua or Herbert? That is the decision facing the Miami Dolphins heading into next week’s draft, one that will define the franchise for years
The Miami Dolphins will have two options for their next franchise quarterback when they use the fifth-overall pick in next week’s NFL Draft: a supremely talented but fragile player in Tua Tagovailoa, or Justin Herbert, a man seemingly manufactured in a quarterback factory but whose play on the field often didn’t match his physical attributes.
It’s a situation they were in before. Following the 2005 season, the Dolphins had a choice. They could’ve picked up Drew Brees, coming off a career-threatening shoulder injury in his final game for the San Diego Chargers. But instead, they decided to trade for Daunte Culpepper, who’s 6’4, 260-lbs stature better fit the mold of a traditional quarterback.
Fourteen years later, that decision continues to haunt the franchise. Brees ended up in New Orleans, where he’s led the Saints to eight playoff appearances, six division titles, and a Super Bowl while starting all but eight games since. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have gone through 14 different quarterbacks in that span and have made the playoffs just twice.
Head coach Brian Flores and General Manager Chris Grier can’t afford to make the same mistake again. That’s what makes their choice of either Tagovailoa or Herbert arguably the toughest decision facing a team in this draft.
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Before November, it would’ve been an easy choice. Tagovailoa, coming off a National Championship game appearance and a runner-up finish in Heisman Trophy balloting the previous year, had a 10-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio for Alabama. In his biggest game, against No. 1 ranked SEC-rival LSU, he more than matched Joe Burrow with 418 yards and four touchdowns in a 46-41 loss. He was well on his way to being in the conversation with Burrow for the first pick in the draft.
But then came Alabama’s Nov. 16 game against Mississippi State, when Tagovailoa was injured in the second quarter after being dragged down from behind by two Bulldogs defenders. He was diagnosed with a broken hip, his season and college football career coming to a premature end. Now Tagovailoa’s health history, which also includes two ankle surgeries, continues to be the most important concern about him.
He insists he’s fully recovered and has posted videos of his workouts on social media, including a virtual pro day, over the past few weeks, but without the ability to conduct their own physicals, teams won’t know for sure before the draft.
That’s where Herbert enters the conversation. Herbert is 6’6, five inches taller than Tagovailoa, with the strong arm and stature teams look for in a quarterback. But his career at Oregon ended in underwhelming fashion. Against state rival Oregon State—with the 106th ranked defense in the nation—he threw for just 174 yards and a touchdown. Over his last four games, he completed 59 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and three interceptions, eclipsing 200 yards just once.
Tagovailoa had a better college career throwing to elite wide receivers at Alabama, but his durability combined with Herbert’s impressive physical qualities gives the Dolphins front office something to think about before they make their pick next Thursday.
Immediately following the Dolphins in the draft is the Los Angeles Chargers with the sixth pick. They’re also looking for a quarterback after Philip Rivers, who started 224 consecutive games for them since 2006, left for Indianapolis in the offseason. The Chargers are heading into the 2020 season with Tyrod Taylor atop their depth chart. Taylor is as different a quarterback from Rivers as there could be. With his elusiveness and ability to escape the pocket, he rushed for 1,575 yards between 2015-17, 966 more than Rivers has in his entire career. Taylor, though, isn’t a long-term answer and the Chargers will likely pick up whichever quarterback the Dolphins take a pass on.
The quarterback Miami ends up drafting will depend on whether the franchise has learned from their past mistakes. They’re still paying for taking the wrong quarterback in 2006; it’s up to Grier and Flores to prevent history repeating itself in 2020.