After being pushed to their limits by division rivals in their last three games, the San Francisco 49ers next three games will tell the story of the rest of their season.
For about one week, the San Francisco 49ers were the last undefeated team standing in the NFL. Then, like the New England Patriots, they lost to a conference rival and their MVP candidate quarterback in primetime. However, unlike the Patriots, San Francisco took their rivals to overtime, meaning they have still never lost in the first four quarters.
As impressive as this sounds, the 49ers haven’t looked like a borderline undefeated team lately. In Week 9, they barely survived No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray and the NFC West’s basement-dwelling Arizona Cardinals. And if it weren’t for a few furious final minutes, they could have easily lost to lowly Arizona again in Week 11.
Understandably, rivalry games are tough. But in an NFC bye week race where five teams have at least eight wins, the 49ers 9-1 record suddenly feels a little bit less than “near perfect”. Every close win will be microanalyzed in this conference, and while the Seattle Seahawks can be criticized for winning seven of their eight games by one score or less, the Hawks proved they could beat an elite team at the death. And that elite team was the 49ers.
These next three weeks will tell the NFL world exactly how good the 49ers are. Maybe they are as elite as their NFC-best 9-1 record would indicate. But if they falter against the Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, and New Orleans Saints in their next three games, they could be 9-4 and out of the bye week picture. This drop would be the difference between “elite” and “good”.
The Packers, Ravens, and Saints are all 8-2 and all three teams have elite quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the 49ers have never defeated a team with a record better than 6-4 this season, as they lost their lone game against an even competitor in Seattle. San Francisco has also mostly faced mediocre quarterbacks. They have only faced a quarterback with a QB Rating inside the top 20 in their last three weeks. The results? Last-gasp wins against Arizona’s Kyler Murray and a loss to Russell Wilson, who is the only star quarterback the 49ers No. 2-ranked defense has faced.
On paper, the 49ers have an awesome statistical resume. Kyle Shanahan’s team is second in points per game allowed, points scored, and net yards per attempt allowed on defense. Statistically, they are the most dominant and well-rounded team in the league. But those statistics are skewed by a slew of poor quarterbacks and below-average teams on their schedule.
For the first time this season, the 49ers will face a gauntlet. For the first time this season, they will be tested by facing three of the most difficult matchups in a row. These are the types of opponents the 49ers will have to battle in the postseason, assuming they don’t spectacularly implode from their 9-1 start.
The Saints are right there with the Niners in the argument for the best team in the NFC. And the Packers might be as dangerous with the inhuman Aaron Rodgers slinging the ball. Both the Saints and Packers represent stiff competition in the conference to the Niners, and a loss would have huge tiebreaker implications. While the Ravens aren’t as high-stakes in this regard, they may be the toughest matchup issue for San Francisco, as Lamar Jackson is the MVP frontrunner who outsmarted Bill Belichick to hand New England their only loss this season.
If the 49ers lose any of these games, they could suddenly drop from first to second in the NFC West behind the Seattle team they lost to, meaning they could go from a playoff bye to a No. 5 or 6 seed. While this drop wouldn’t be catastrophic, it would serve to underscore the fine margins between “good” and “elite” in the wide-open, ultra-talented NFC.
Having to play against only one of the Saints, Ravens, or Packers in a three-game stretch would be difficult enough. The 49ers have to face all three in a row after showing some cracks for the first time this season. Shanahan has a chance to show his team is as good as the statistics indicate and emphatically double down the Niners’ advantage in the NFC.
But there’s an equal chance the 49ers are exposed badly by three talented teams with more organizational playoff experience. All three of these teams have won a Super Bowl and been perennial playoff contenders in this decade.
San Francisco have been NFL darlings to start the 2019 season, and, no matter what, they will be applauded for their turnaround under John Lynch and Shanahan. However, they want much more than a pat on the back. They want to prove they are contenders. They want a Super Bowl ring. In order to accomplish this highest of aspirations, however, they must first prove they can hang with the NFL’s establishment. Over the next three weeks, the 49ers will get their chance to show the league what they’re truly made of.