The Kansas City Chiefs are headed on the road to take on their new rival, New England Patriots. Will the Chiefs offense be up to the task against this vaunted Patriots defense?
The Kansas City Chiefs have had a rollercoaster season. Star wide receiver Tyreek Hill broke his collarbone in Week 1. Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury in the same game only to have it irritated again against the Indianapolis Colts. Then he dislocated his kneecap against the Denver Broncos.
Almost anything that could go wrong for the Chiefs’ offense has. They’ve only played two full games with their entire opening day starting lineup. Yet, they’re third in points per game, fourth in total yards per game and third in passing yards per game.
Over the past two weeks — both Kansas City wins — the Chiefs have averaged 32 points. Yet the unit has struggled, and Mahomes hasn’t cracked 200 passing yards in each. He’s missed throws, the line hasn’t picked up stunts, and the receivers beyond Hill are lacking.
Now, with the New England Patriots and their vaunted defense on deck, the question looms: are the Chiefs good enough offensively to win this game in Foxborough?
Frankly, this shouldn’t be a question. An offense with Hill, Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins and rookie speedster Mecole Hardman (who’s third in the NFL in yards per reception) should be a nightmare to defend.
Additionally, Andy Reid and Co. have had recent success against the Patriots’ defense. In their last three regular season matchups, the Chiefs have averaged a whopping 41 points per game with two of those three games being played in Foxborough. If you add in their two playoff matchups since Reid got to Kansas City, the Chiefs have averaged 35 points per game.
So with all of these weapons and a seemingly super-human quarterback, what’s been ailing the offense? For starters, the offensive line has somewhat struggled, especially on the interior. They know what to expect from tackles Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher, but the interior has been uneven against stunts and twists. Still, according to Pro Football Focus, the Chiefs offensive line has the second-highest pass-blocking efficiency.
However, that efficiency rating is heavily weighted towards sacks, and the Chiefs are fourth in the league in sack rate at 4.31 percent thanks in part to Mahomes’ maneuverability. On the other side of the ball, New England ranks fourth in defensive sack rate at 9.20 percent. Oddly enough, the Patriots sack rate is worse at home than it is on the road.
So how can the Chiefs, who have clearly struggled with games up front, combat the Patriots pass rush who have thrived on running stunts and twists to get to the quarterback?
First, by getting back to their quick passing game. Last season, Mahomes was one of the league’s best when it came to getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds.
Secondly, the Chiefs must be prepared for the Patriots patented Cover 0 blitzes. New England has gone to it a lot this season, and has crushed opposing quarterbacks with it. We’ve already seen Mahomes correctly identify Cover 0 and was prepared for it, hit Hill for a touchdown against that coverage when they played the Tennessee Titans.
The Patriots are No. 1 in defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders and sit second in pass defense DVOA. That could be problematic even for a Chiefs offense which ranks No. 3 in overall offensive DVOA and third in passing DVOA.
Furthermore, the Chiefs can do is take a page from the Houston Texans’ book. In the Texans victory over the Patriots on Sunday night, they were able to take the Patriots out of their Cover 0 looks and minimize blitzing opportunities by forcing the linebackers to cover receivers. Linebackers in coverage mean you can’t blitz and with the speed the Chiefs have. With tight end Travis Kelce the defense is in a bind.
The Chiefs are more than capable of putting up points against this defense, but they’re going to need to be sound offensively to do it.