Betting and Odds Archives | Bet Sunday

Patriots, Raiders, Chargers favored to sign Tom Brady

Kuda Z — Fri, 14 Feb 2020 21:58:16 +0000

With Tom Brady’s contract set to end soon and no renegotiations underway, fans are betting on which team Brady will play for in 2020.

For the first time in his 20 seasons, the star New England Patriots quarterback could potentially enter the free-agent market. Brady’s current contract will void on March 18, with the “legal tampering” window opening on March 16 to begin talks with other potential teams.

With the reality of the 42-year-old retiring before the start of the 2020 season seeming less likely, bookmakers have posted odds on which team the six-time Super Bowl champion will sign with. Those still willing to bet on the quarterback retiring can find +3400 odds at FanDuel, however, here are Brady’s Week 1 team odds:

New England Patriots -400

The Belichick-Brady era has produced nine Super Bowl appearances and six wins, along with becoming the first-ever NFL team to have a perfect 16-game season. The duo works, which is why re-signing with the Patriots is the favorite according to bookmakers and the betting public. There are some doubts, however, as Brady previously vocalized being open to testing free agency and Belichick has remained quiet altogether.

Las Vegas Raiders +750

Outside of returning to New England, Las Vegas has been the favored landing spot for the signal-caller. Speculation began when Brady was seen speaking with Raiders’ owner Mark Davis at a UFC match. NFL ESPN Insider Adam Schefter also reported that the Raiders would be actively pursuing Brady if he does not renegotiate with the Patriots.

Los Angeles Chargers +1000

The Chargers recently separated from quarterback Philip Rivers, meaning there is a serious need for the position. Brady also fueled rumors that he himself could be interested in L.A. after “liking” the NFL’s official announcement on Instagram. Brady would be a fitting replacement for the Hall-of-Fame caliber Rivers. The Chargers could also be AFC contenders with names like Hunter Henry, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler, making an ideal fit for a champion quarterback.

Miami Dolphins +1400

The Dolphins are in a period of transition this offseason, aiming to stabilize their offensive line and groom a franchise quarterback. Miami will likely target Tua Tagovailoa in the 2020 NFL Draft, not to mention that both Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick are still under contract. The odds might not indicate the sentiment, but Brady is likely a longshot to ever play for the rebuilding Dolphins.

Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans +1900

The Colts and Titans are not the most likely homes for Brady, though they are not the longest odds. Indianapolis quarterback Jacoby Brissett had a somewhat inconsistent season after stepping in for the now-retired Andrew Luck. The Titans were able to best the Patriots in their AFC Wild Card matchup, and Brady would have a talented young supporting cast of Corey Davis, A.J. Brown, and presumably Derrick Henry.

Other potential teams on the FanDuel odds board include the Dallas Cowboys (+2200), Chicago Bears (+3400), and Carolina Panthers (+6000).

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Super Bowl 54 odds: Chiefs favored by 1.5 points over 49ers

Kuda Z — Mon, 20 Jan 2020 03:12:43 +0000

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 19: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs gestures at the line in the first half against the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 19, 2020 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

The Conference Championship round was an absolute blowout, but oddsmakers think that the Super Bowl LIV matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will be much closer.

The lines for the Conference Championship games were large, with the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers both favored by at least a touchdown. The two teams easily covered, setting the stage for what should be an epic showdown in Super Bowl LIV in Miami on Feb. 2.

The opening line for the game has already dropped, and the line is far tighter than the last few rounds have been for both of these teams. The Chiefs have been installed as 1.5-point favorites over the 49ers at the start of the two week lead-up to the big game, and given how impressive both teams looked the line likely won’t shift too much over that span.

These two teams are really evenly matched up, with Kansas City having a stronger passing attack and the 49ers forte coming with the ground game. The defenses are also remarkably similar, with each squad featuring a tremendous pass rush and some big names in the secondary, like 49ers’ cornerback Richard Sherman and Chiefs’ safety Tyrann Mathieu.

With a spread that low, there is very little point to bet on it without simply betting outright on who will win the game. The money line is also close on this game, with the Chiefs opening at -125 and the 49ers coming in at +105, so if you have a strong feeling about the outcome this is probably a much more interesting wager to make than playing the spread.

The spread is simply the start of the betting for Super Bowl LIV, with other fun stuff like the prop bets set to start coming out in the coming days.

Next: Here are 4 reasons to get hyped for the Super Bowl

The post Super Bowl 54 odds: Chiefs favored by 1.5 points over 49ers appeared first on Bet Sunday.

NFL Conference Championship odds and preview: 5 best bets

Kuda Z — Mon, 13 Jan 2020 18:25:28 +0000

With the Super Bowl just a few weeks away, there are some interesting ways for savvy bettors to make money during the Conference Championship round of the NFL Playoffs.

The football season is almost over, and we now only have three more games of real football to watch (sorry Pro Bowl fanatics, it doesn’t count). Two of those come this weekend, with the Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers, and San Francisco 49ers battling for a trip to Miami and Super Bowl LIV.

Only two games mean fewer opportunities for gamblers to make some bets on the NFL Playoffs, but that doesn’t mean you’re at a complete loss. FanSided is here to help, as we have every week of the football season, and we will spotlight the five best bets to make for the penultimate weekend of the NFL season.

Let’s get started with a look at something that we haven’t discussed yet this season, the money line. For that, let’s head to Arrowhead Stadium.

5. Kansas City Chiefs’ Money Line (-340)

For those who are unfamiliar, the money line doesn’t involve spreads or over/under totals, simply placing a bet on who will win the game. The favorites are usually minus a certain figure, like the Chiefs this week, who are -340. That means in order to win 100 dollars you would bet 340 on the Chiefs.

This isn’t as lucrative as some of the other bets on the board, but it is the safest pick of the money lines since Kansas City has a much better chance of beating Tennessee than any of the other teams do of winning their games. Therefore, the Chiefs’ money line is the pick here.

The post NFL Conference Championship odds and preview: 5 best bets appeared first on Bet Sunday.

NFL Playoffs: Best prop bets to make in Saturday Divisional Round games

Kuda Z — Sat, 11 Jan 2020 18:02:17 +0000

FanSided is partnering with The Action Network to bring you expert sports betting information and analysis.

There’s tons of value to be had betting NFL props. And with the slates getting smaller with the playoffs, I’m peeling the curtain back on my full prop betting process.

Below is a guide to key player props for the Vikings-49ers and Titans-Ravens matchups that kick off the Divisional Round on Saturday. That includes props I’m betting — or looking to bet once lines reach a certain threshold — based on my projections.

I’ve also created a downloadable spreadsheet calculator, which you can use to plug in the lines at your books and automatically calculate the exact edge on four of the prop markets we’ll cover. Note that I typically wouldn’t bet a prop unless the line offers a 58% edge according to my calculations, so every pick I’ve outlined in the following analysis reaches at least that threshold.

Now let’s dig into the slate.

Vikings Props & Picks

Kirk Cousins

I have Cousins projected for 1.26 passing touchdowns, which implies a 64.1% chance of going under 1.5 passing TDs. FanDuel is offering the Under 1.5 at -136 as of writing, which means there’s a bit of value.

FanDuel appears to be the only book offering this prop (likely due to Adam Thielen being questionable). I anticipate that once other books open it closer to my line of -170, it will force FanDuel to lower the odds. It’s ideal to get in on the -136 while it lasts, but I would be comfortable betting it down to -160.

PICK: Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-136)

49ers Props & Picks

George Kittle

I have Kittle’s median receiving yards at 74, and some books are offering the market as high as 79.5, but a 5.5-yard difference doesn’t offer much value for a player like Kittle. A book would have to offer 81.5 before it becomes a play for me.

I added Kittle to the player prop calculator so you can monitor the lines offered by your book and check whether there’s any value. Again, my personal threshold is 58% for when a market is offering a -115 line, but that obviously changes based on the moneyline and personal feel.

If you really wanted to pull the trigger any prop offering any value whatsoever, you could bet any prop that’s showing over 0.1% in my calculator.

PICK: Under 81.5 (or More) Yards

Ravens Props & Picks

Lamar Jackson

One key to successfully betting on props is knowing which type of players to avoid altogether.

Jackson is one of those players.

The Ravens quarterback is truly an outlier in his passing and rushing ability that gives him a wide range of outcomes in both. Our ability to accurately calculate our perceived edge is going to be much easier for just about every other player, so it’s better to channel our efforts elsewhere.

The only market I would advise attacking would be passing touchdowns — but only if you’re able to find value. Books have been offering this at 1.5 and 2.5 passing touchdowns, so with that in mind, here’s the breakdown of my probability estimates:

Seth Roberts

Books are offering Roberts’ receiving prop at 14.5 as of writing. That’s a tad low, so I ran my simulator to see what sort of edge it’s providing.

It’s important to note that Roberts is essentially Baltimore’s No. 2 WR if you look at routes run per dropback: He averaged 62% from Weeks 11-16 compared to Willie Snead at 54%.

I have Roberts projected for 1.9 receptions, which translates to 22.7 average yards and 17.5 median yards according to my simulations. Those three yards of perceived edge are pretty valuable in this market as I have Roberts going over 14.5 yards 58.6% of the time, which exceeds the threshold I need to trigger a bet (58%).

Numbers could vary across the market, so be sure to download my prop calculator below.

PICK: Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Mark Andrews

Andrews is an extremely tricky player to project. He’s technically in a three-way timeshare with Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle, yet consistently sees a high percentage of targets to overcome it.

I have Andrews projected for 4.1 receptions and an expected 12.3 yards per reception rate for this matchup. It gives him a 48.5 median projection in my simulations.

Instead of attacking his receiving yards market, it makes more sense to shift the focus to his longest reception market given books are offering that prop from over 19.5 yards (-112) to under 24.5 (-139) — a very critical range for this prop as I have it going over 19.5 yards 51.4% of the time vs. under 24.5 yards 71.4% of the time. That’s a 22.8% chance Andrews ends up finishing between the two numbers, creating an interesting middle scenario.

Simulating a to-win-$100 bet on the over 19.5 and under 24.5 results in an average of $24.5 and median of -$12. It’s likely a better idea to just bet the under 24.5 (-130) if you have access to it.

PICK: Longest Reception Under 24.5 Yards (-130)

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Titans Props & Picks

Ryan Tannehill

I have Tannehill projected for 1.18 passing touchdowns, which translates to a 67% chance of going under 1.5.

FanDuel is offering his under 1.5 touchdowns passes at -160. I would take that bet all the way down to -180.

PICK: Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-160)

Derrick Henry

PointsBet is offering a fun market for Henry’s longest rush with odds for various bands such as 0-9, 10-19, 20-29, 30-plus. I crunched the numbers to project the odds of each bucket hitting.

The 10-19 yards bucket hit 48.8% of the time in my sims, as his median is 18 yards for the longest rush. The +152 odds for this band is definitely offering enough value to warrant a bet.

PICK: Longest Rush 10-19 Yards (+152)

A.J. Brown

After being shut down by Stefon Gilmore and the Patriots in the Wild Card Round to the tune of a 1/4/0 line, the market is presenting us with a value opportunity on Brown’s receptions this week.

Yes, Gilmore likely had a big role in that line, but we also have to remember Tannehill attempted only 15 passes as the Titans leaned heavily on Henry. They likely won’t have that luxury this week, which means they’ll likely need to throw more to keep up with the Ravens’ high-scoring offense.

The matchup against Baltimore’s pass defense isn’t much better this week, but Tennessee would be foolish to not target Brown heavily here. I have him projected for 4.1 receptions, which implies a 58.6% chance of going over the 3.5 line books have set this week.

FanDuel is offering the over at +112, which makes this a no-brainer bet for me at that price.

PICK: A.J. Brown Over 3.5 Receptions (+112)*

*Offers +EV value up until -130

Divisional Round Player Props Calculator

Click this link to download the spreadsheet with my player props calculator for George Kittle, Damien Williams, Mark Andrews and Seth Roberts.

Simply use the dropdown menu in Column C to adjust the lines accordingly, plug the right vig into Columns F and G, then my calculated edges will auto-populate Columns D and E.

Here’s a preview of what the spreadsheet looks like:

The post NFL Playoffs: Best prop bets to make in Saturday Divisional Round games appeared first on Bet Sunday.

NFL Divisional round odds and preview: 5 best bets

Kuda Z — Tue, 07 Jan 2020 16:52:13 +0000

With the Divisional round here, some big numbers mean there are big opportunities for savvy bettors wagering on the NFL Playoffs.

The NFL playoffs represent the best matchups of the season, as the top teams square off to earn the right to represent their conference in the Super Bowl. That usually means betting lines are tight, with very little difference between picking the winner or covering the spread.

This year is a major exception, due in large part to significant upsets by Tennessee and Minnesota on Wild Card weekend. As a result of those wins, the matchups that were created have some unusually high lines for Divisional Weekend, including the fact that both AFC matchups are close to 10-point spreads.

This leads to some fun for sports bettors, who can now look to exploit some opportunities with the high lines. Let’s dive into our five best bets of the week, beginning with the customary over/under pick.

5. Titans-Ravens Under 48

The oddsmakers expect a lot of scoring this weekend, with each of the four games projected to have at least 45 points combined in the over/under totals. A few of those seem a bit optimistic, but the biggest outlier appears to be with Tennessee and Baltimore.

The Titans are a power-running team behind Derrick Henry which will look to control the clock and limit possessions. Baltimore is also a ground-and-pound unit at heart, so expecting a shootout seems quite unlikely on a chilly Saturday night in Baltimore. Bet the under with confidence.

The post NFL Divisional round odds and preview: 5 best bets appeared first on Bet Sunday.

NFL lines, Wild Card 2019: 5 best bets for Wild Card Weekend

Kuda Z — Tue, 31 Dec 2019 21:14:14 +0000

With Wild Card Weekend coming up, FanSided offers up its five best bets for the first round of the NFL Playoffs.

The NFL regular season is over and the playoffs are finally here, so it’s time to find some more value bets for gamblers. There are only four games to choose from for bettors, but there is a good wager to be had in each and every one of them.

Let’s start our look at the Wild Card round with a weekly tradition, pinpointing an over/under total to bet on. This edition will focus on Saturday’s AFC showdown in Foxboro between the Patriots and Titans.

5. Titans-Patriots Under 43.5

This matchup is intriguing for a lot of reasons, including the fact that New England has to play on Wild Card weekend for the first time since 2009. The Patriots have struggled mightily on offense and their defense let Ryan Fitzpatrick go right down the field for Miami’s game-winning touchdown on Sunday.

The result of that loss and Kansas City’s win was a date with the Tennessee Titans, who have a solid defense of their own and the league’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry. Tennessee will look to control the clock and limit possessions, making this a low scoring game.

That makes Vegas’ projected over/under total of 43.5 points feel very generous, especially on a chilly and wet night in New England. Expect a lower scoring game between the Patriots and Titans and the under feels likely to hit here.

The post NFL lines, Wild Card 2019: 5 best bets for Wild Card Weekend appeared first on Bet Sunday.

NFL Week 17 picks against the spread

Kuda Z — Thu, 26 Dec 2019 19:55:39 +0000

(Photo by Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

There is just one week left in the NFL regular season to bet on your favorite teams. With so much uncertainty, we look at this week’s NFL odds to see where to put our final bets of the regular season.

We finally made it. Week 17 of the NFL season. If you’re still here, that means one of three things. Either, you’ve had a bad season and are looking for one payout to try to cut into your losses while the options are plentiful. Maybe you’ve been a big winner and want one last push to end the season on top. Then, there are those who have been wanting to make bets all season long, but now that things are at the end they want to jump in with both feet.

We are here for just about everyone. There’s a lot to figure out in Week 17. Who’s going to actually play their starters? Are we going to see Lamar Jackson take on the Pittsburgh Steelers, or are we stuck figuring out what Robert Griffin III going to do under center? What about the fact we may actually see Paxton Lynch in an NFL game again? This week is always crazy for bettors, but this season may take the cake.

We’ve been all over the place all season. The Philadelphia Eagles have been one of the worst bets of the season, but here they are ready for a playoff berth. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams were one of the best bets of the season, but they’re not going to make the playoffs at all. We look at these trends to figure out which games are worth your money.

All lines taken from The Action Network.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-15.5)

Our favorite part of Week 17 is that every single game is on Sunday. We get 16 games within a ten-hour period.

We’ll start here with the New England Patriots, who have everything to lose, taking on a team with nothing to lose. The Patriots need a win to keep their first-round bye and the second seed in the AFC Playoffs. They are going to put everything on the line in this matchup, especially against a Miami Dolphins team that just doesn’t have the talent to keep up.

However, this Dolphins team is still cagey, and they’ve won games before they weren’t supposed to win. Ryan Fitzpatrick showed he still has a little Fitzmagic in his blood, helping the Dolphins win four games almost by himself. A late collapse to the Cincinnati Bengals did not undo a 400 yard, four touchdown performance from the Dolphins quarterback.

The last time these two teams played, it was the worst loss of the season for the Dolphins. However, it was Josh Rosen under center for the Fins. This is a much different team right now, but still not a good one. We can see a backdoor cover happening in either way here, so this may be a stay away if not placed in a parlay. We’re leaning towards the Patriots here, but 15.5 is a ton of points when a win is all that’s needed.

Pick: New England (-15.5)

The post NFL Week 17 picks against the spread appeared first on Bet Sunday.

NFL Week 17 2019: Picks and predictions

Kuda Z — Thu, 26 Dec 2019 12:30:12 +0000

The final weekend of the NFL regular season is here, and three teams are fighting for a single playoff spot in the AFC picture.

As always, the odds are provided by our terrific partners at The Action Network.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-1)

The Vikings (10-5) are sitting everybody, locked into the sixth seed. The Bears (7-8) will actually try, and that’ll be just enough to finish off their miserable season with a win.

Pick: Chicago 20, Minnesota 16

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PICK)

This is going to be fun. Jameis Winston is looking for 5,000 passing yards along with 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in a season. The Buccaneers (7-8) and Falcons (6-9) can both light it up. Should be a good time.

Pick: Tampa Bay 30, Atlanta 28

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-15.5)

The Patriots (12-3) aren’t going to mess around. The Dolphins (4-11) will fight, but this is over by halftime.

Pick: New England 21, Miami 10

Green Bay Packers (-10) at Detroit Lions

If the Packers (12-3) win, they clinch a first-round bye. David Blough and the Lions (3-11-1) stand in the way. In other words, Green Bay has a bye.

Pick: Green Bay 27, Detroit 13

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

The state of Ohio should hold a moment of silence before this, in honor of everyone who cares about football.

Pick: Cincinnati 24, Cleveland 23

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)

The Chiefs (11-4) are going to hammer the Chargers (5-10). Kansas City is in play for a bye, and the defense is giving up something like negative points per game over the last month. Tough swan song for Philip Rivers.

Pick: Kansas City 33, Los Angeles 16

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1)

With the Bills (10-5) locked into the fifth seed, they’ll sit everyone. Can you believe the Jets (6-9) are going to win seven games?

Pick: New York 26, Buffalo 17

New Orleans Saints (-13) at Carolina Panthers

This won’t be pretty for the Panthers (5-10). They’ve been dead on arrival since Ron Rivera was fired. The Saints (12-3) are still playing for a bye week. They’ll roll.

Pick: New Orleans 41, Carolina 10

The post NFL Week 17 2019: Picks and predictions appeared first on Bet Sunday.

NFL lines, Week 17 2019: 5 best bets

Kuda Z — Tue, 24 Dec 2019 18:25:27 +0000

With the regular season coming to a close, figuring out the team’s motivations is the key for savvy bettors to find success in Week 17.

The long journey of the regular season is about to come to an end. After this Sunday’s action, 20 teams will head home for the winter while a lucky 12 will continue on in pursuit of the Lombardi Trophy.

Given the various states of clinching that have occurred, it is almost impossible to get a read on how teams will approach the final week of the season. Defining motivation gives bettors the best chance for success, and that is the theme for this week’s best bets.

Let’s get started in Baltimore as we look at a potentially low-scoring contest between two bitter rivals.

5. Steelers-Ravens Under 41.5

This is one of the NFL’s fiercest rivalries, but the teams involved have completely different agendas for Week 17. The Steelers are fighting for their playoff lives while the Ravens have already secured home field throughout the playoffs, with Baltimore planning to sit Lamar Jackson and other key starters to get ready for the postseason run.

The downgrade from Jackson to Robert Griffin III is massive, and it will diminish the Ravens’ scoring potential. Add in the Steelers’ limitations on offense, and it is clear as day that the 41.5 over/under total is way too high. Bet the under here with confidence.

The post NFL lines, Week 17 2019: 5 best bets appeared first on Bet Sunday.

NFL Week 16 2019: Pick and predictions

Kuda Z — Thu, 19 Dec 2019 12:00:57 +0000

Week 16 gives us three consecutive days of NFL action, with divisional rivalries and playoff spots highlighting all three afternoons.

As always, all lines below are courtesy of our partners at The Action Network.

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Saturday’s slate kicks off with the Texans (9-5) and Buccaneers (7-7). Tampa Bay is on fire, and Jameis Winston has an outside shot of getting to 5,000 yards passing in this one. Houston will try to clinch the AFC South, but it won’t be easy.

Pick: Tampa Bay 38, Houston 34

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6)

Does anybody score a touchdown? The Bills (10-4) and Patriots (11-3) are both painful to watch offensively and excellent defensively. This comes down to whether Josh Allen makes a big mistake.

Pick: New England 13, Buffalo 12

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

The Rams (8-6) were going to make this really interesting, and then got blown out by Dallas. Considering how badly the 49ers (11-3) need a win in the NFC West race, they should handle business.

Pick: San Francisco 30, Los Angeles 24

Baltimore Ravens (-10) at Cleveland Browns

It’s really, really hard seeing the Ravens (12-2) lose this game. Baltimore would clinch the No. 1 seed, and the Browns (6-8) are a total disaster. This feels like a coronation.

Pick: Baltimore 35, Cleveland 20

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