Tee Higgins has a bright future, but will he make an instant impact for fantasy owners as a rookie?

The Cincinnati Bengals took quarterback Joe Burrow No. 1 overall in April’s draft, as expected. But a sneaky move came with the first pick of the second round, when then took Clemson wide receiver Tee Higgins.

Higgins had a big final season at Clemson, with 59 receptions for 1,167 yards (19.8 yards per catch) and 13 touchdowns. He averaged 13.4 yards per target, and Pro Football Focus gave him the second-highest grade among rookie wide receivers (90.5).

Higgins joins a wide receiver group that includes A.J. Green (who he was compared to pre-draft) and Tyler Boyd. Green did not play last season after suffering an ankle injury early in camp, but Boyd is underrated and Cincinnati now has a pretty good-looking trio of receivers. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Bengals used 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, three WR) 76 percent of the time last year. Add in a bit of three or four wide receivers in other personnel groupings, and the percentage becomes 78 percent. So Higgins is stepping into a starting job.

Will Tee Higgins Be An Immediate Fantasy Factor?

Right or wrong, the fantasy community is pretty high on Burrow. Even with some improvement to the Bengals defense this offseason, he should be throwing the ball plenty. Green, Boyd and even running back Joe Mixon will be prominent targets, with John Ross, Auden Tate and tight end Drew Sample in the mix.

That said, there should be room for Higgins to contribute. Tate had 80 targets in 12 games last season, with Green of course missing all 16 games, and something in the 70-80 target range seems reasonable for Higgins as things look right now.

The Bengals franchise tagged Green this offseason, and they don’t seem inclined to trade him even it makes some sense in the big picture. But if that tune changes and Green is moved between now and Week 1, or even during the season, Higgins would be in line for more targets. If Green struggles to stay on the field again, Higgins would also be in line for a big role.

With Green likely heading into his last season as a Bengal, Higgins is (or at least should be) prominent on the radar in dynasty/keeper leagues. But in single-season leagues he’s only worth drafting as a late-round flier in the deepest leagues, unless something changes his immediate outlook. He’ll start on the waiver wire everywhere else otherwise, with the possibility to become a factor if things break a certain way.

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With Dalvin Cook set to hold out, Alexander Mattison is now the No. 1 handcuff in fantasy football.

Dalvin Cook had a breakout season in 2019, with 1,135 rushing yards, 53 catches for 519 yards and 13 touchdowns (all rushing). But he also missed two games and was banged up for a few others, which opened up some opportunities for backups Alexander Mattison and Mike Boone.

Cook is entering the final year of of his contract, and absent a new “reasonable” deal he is set to hold out into training camp or beyond. A new CBA makes that decision a less than smart one, as he’d lose an accrued season if he holds out of camp and would not become an unrestricted free agent next March.

Given his injury history, drafting Cook in fantasy this year automatically comes with the notion of drafting his backup as a handcuff. Now, with a long holdout unlikely but possible, the idea has to practically be a priority for those who take Cook in the first round.

How has Dalvin Cook’s backup done in his place?

Cook missed 12 games with a torn ACL as a rookie in 2017. Jerick McKinnon stepped in, and from Week 5-Week 17 he was RB13 in standard fantasy scoring and RB10 in full PPR.

In 2018, when Cook missed five games with a hamstring issue, Latavius Murray got bumped up the depth chart. Narrowing to Week 5-Week 9, the four consecutive games Cook missed and his first game back, Murray had 353 rushing yards (4.8 yards per carry) with five rushing scores and 11 receptions. Over that span, Murray was RB7 in standard and full PPR.

In the two full games Cook missed in 2019 (Week 16 and 17), with Mattison also out with an ankle injury, Boone had 11 carries for 28 yards (Week 16) and 17 carries for 148 yards and a touchdown (Week 17). In a Week 15 blowout win over the Chargers, when Cook injured his shoulder and Mattison was out, Boone had 13 carries for 56 yards and two rushing touchdowns.

Entering this year, Mattison is clearly Cook’s backup

A third-round pick out of Boise State in 2019, Mattison averaged 4.6 yards per carry on an even 100 totes as a rookie. He didn’t produce a lot in the passing game, but he did catch 10 of his 12 targets for 82 yards. As Dave Richard of CBS Sports noted, Mattison was comparable to Cook last year in yards per carry (4.6 to 4.5 for Cook) catch rate (83.3 percent to 84.1 percent for Cook) and yards after contact per attempt (3.22 to 3.06 for Cook).

Cook’s ADP may start to edge down, but as of Tuesday morning he’s RB3 (pick 1.04) in full PPR (12 teams). In that same league size and scoring, Mattison is RB43 and pick 9.07. Shift to 12-team standard, and Cook is at the same ADP while Mattison is still RB43 but down to pick 10.05. If that feels backwards in terms of PPR and standard scoring ADP split, you’re not alone.

For those who don’t take the plunge with the Vikings’ lead back, Mattison’s appeal will be best weighed late in a draft against the other available options across multiple positions.

In any case, at least in the short-term, some fantasy steam has fallen off Cook. So the follow-up draft day investment in Mattison as the handcuff is now practically mandatory for those who’ll be on the fence.

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Hayden Hurst is getting a fresh start with the Atlanta Falcons, but here’s why he’ll be a fantasy bust this year.

The Baltimore Ravens drafted two tight ends in the 2018 draft, and with the emergence or Mark Andrews last year first-round pick Hayden Hurst fell by the wayside. But an offseason trade to the Atlanta Falcons looks like a breath of fresh air for the South Carolina product, in real and fantasy football terms.

The Falcons lost tight end Austin Hooper in free agency to the Cleveland Browns. He had 75 receptions (on 97 targets) for 797 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games last year, on is way to finishing as TE7 in standard fantasy scoring and TE6 in full PPR. In full PPR, Hooper averaged the third-most fantasy points per game among tight ends (14.8).

Over the last two seasons, the Falcons have targeted the tight end position 106 (2018) and 121 times (2019). Hooper had 88 and 97 targets in the respective seasons, good for 83 and 80.2 percent shares of the tight end targets. So Hurst is stepping into a substantial role, and going back to Tony Gonzalez quarterback Matt Ryan has kept a good tight end involved.

Why Hayden Hurst will be a fantasy football bust in 2020

The Falcons should be throwing the ball plenty again this year, with over 600 attempts for quarterback Ryan a virtual lock. Wide receivers Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will be the top two targets, with Ridley perhaps in line for a Chris Godwin-style breakthrough this year. Still, there should be 90-100 targets available for Hurst over 16 games. No. 3 wide receiver Russell Gage stands as competition for targets in the short and intermediate areas of the field, and running back Todd Gurley is in line for a solid passing game role too.

Kyle Yates of Fantasy Pros sees Hurst as a top-five fantasy tight end in 2020, and there’s a strong case for that. A projection in that range puts upside into his current TE10 ADP in full PPR (12-team leagues), with a top-10 finish perhaps his floor.

A limited role and Andrews’ emergence in Baltimore led to Hurst being the odd-man out, with value to be extracted in a trade and a needed change of scenery. In this unique offseason Hurst has been traveling to get reps in with Ryan, which is helpful as much as it can be considered overstated.

Getting someone like George Kittle and Travis Kelce can be an advantage for fantasy owners, but without one of that group it’s generally worth waiting to draft a tight end. Hurst is one of the poster boys for that middle ground at the position this year, even with some embedded upside.

Even with all of that positive vibe, I see a wide range of outcomes for Hurst in 2020. And if I’m going to embrace a lot of risk-reward, as one would do when they wait to draft a tight end, I’d rather do it even later on someone like Jonnu Smith, Noah Fant, Blake Jarwin or T.J. Hockenson. Even a little above Hurst’s ADP at the position, I’d rather make a bet on Evan Engram’s health and upside.

Based on his upper-middle ground ADP, Hurst might be the only tight end a lot of fantasy owners come out of their draft or auction with this year in a normal size league.

With the bust potential that’s not easily seen, as he shifts down the pecking order for targets in line with Ridley reaching a new level, drafting Hurst is a push down the path to streaming the tight end position in 2020.

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The Colts seem sure to frustrate fantasy owners with their running back deployment, but don’t dismiss the niche Nyheim Hines will occupy.

As a rookie in 2018, Indianapolis Colts running back Nyheim Hines had 63 receptions for 425 yards in pass-catching role. The offense slowed down and ran the ball more last year, as Jacoby Brissett replaced Andrew Luck, and Hines’ role dropped (32 percent snap share, 44 catches).

The Colts are destined to move back toward the pass this year with Philip Rivers under center. In 2018, with Luck as the quarterback of course, they were top-five offense in the league in pace and top-10 in pass percentage.

From Darren Sproles to Danny Woodhead to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler, Rivers regularly peppered running backs with targets as the Chargers’ quarterback. In 2019, Ekeler had 92 receptions for 993 yards and eight touchdowns on 108 targets.

In comments to the Colts’ website, Hines expressed excitement for the opportunity that’s in front of him.

“Been waiting two or three years, just trying to catch balls and hopefully I get a little bit more opportunity. I’m going to try and earn that.”

“As a running back, we’re the safety valve,” Hines said. “I’ve always thought I was the safety valve that can take a five-yard dump and turn it into 50. That’s really what I’ve been planning on doing the last two years and hopefully show glimpses of it. I would love to do that this year and I think with Philip back there, there would be a great possibility of it.”

Nyheim Hines fills a fantasy niche that cannot be ignored

The Colts drafted Jonathan Taylor in the second round of the draft. But visions of a co-No. 1 situation with Marlon Mack are out there from offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni. Mack is not going away, with over 900 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons and 17 total rushing scores in that span.

Colts head coach Frank Reich has spoken about Hines, calling him a “role-playing starter” and pointing to a back Reich had with the Chargers and Rivers.

“We used to say in San Diego that when we had Danny Woodhead. He was not our starter, he was our ‘role playing’ starter,” said Reich, who was the Chargers offensive coordinator from 2014-2015. “He played such a significant role. He had 80 catches in a year. You look at a guy like Nyehim Hines. We talk about Marlon and Jonathan, but what about Nyheim? He’s such a good third-down back that he’ll play a prominent (role).”

When fully healthy in the 2015 season Reich mentioned, Woodhead had 80 receptions (on 106 targets) for 755 yards and six touchdowns. In 2018, Hines had 81 targets (essentially five per game).

In terms of competition for targets out of the backfield, Hines won’t have much. Mack had 14 catches on 17 targets last year, and he has 52 catches in three NFL seasons. While Taylor had an expanded passing game early last year for Wisconsin, he ended up with 26 catches for the season.

A promise of a faster pace and better efficiency automatically brings the prospect of more opportunities for everyone in the Indianapolis offense this year. All three backs will have a role, with Taylor possibly usurping Mack at some point. But in terms of fantasy upside, and profit potential, Hines’ place in the rotation is clear and he’s a place to find PPR gold late in drafts.

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D.K. Metcalf had a pretty good rookie season, but how high is fantasy football ceiling in 2020 and beyond?

Questions about his ability to convert high-end physical tools into NFL production dropped D.K. Metcalf to the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, where the Seattle Seahawks nabbed him with the 64th overall pick. Looking back now, those questions look shortsighted.

Metcalf finished with 58 receptions (on an even 100 targets) for 900 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie. In Seahawks’ franchise history, only Joey Galloway had more receptions (67) and yards (1,039) as a rookie than Metcalf, and Daryl Turner (10) and Brian Blades (eight) are the only ones with more touchdowns in a debut season. In two playoff games, Metcalf had 11 catches for 219 yards and a touchdown, including a rookie playoff-record 160 yards against the Eagles in the Wild Card Round.

But Metcalf does have room for improvement. His seven drops were tied for 11th-most in the league, and his three fumbles were all lost by the Seahawks.

Speaking to NBC Sports Northwest on radio row during Super Bowl week, Metcalf cited ball security as the main flaw he needs to work on.

“Mainly my drops,” Metcalf said. “I had way too many drops in my opinion. Some of those drops could have changed the outcome of the game. I’m just working on those drops, man.”

A run-oriented offense naturally limits the ceiling for Seattle’s passing game, but Tyler Lockett and Metcalf were both top-30 fantasy wide receivers in standard scoring leagues last year. The two combined to account for a 42.5 percent target share.

Take away the three lost fumbles, assuming two points lost per, and Metcalf would have gone all the way up to WR23 in standard scoring leagues last year. Based on his average of 1.85 fantasy points per target, seven drops left 12.95 fantasy points on the table. In one particular case, Metcalf dropped what would have been a 38-yard touchdown, so that points per target projection is automatically an inaccurate estimate of how many fantasy points Metcalf did not get due purely to drops.

Accounting for everything, including the second-year improvement wide receivers tend to experience, Metcalf is easily in line to push into WR2 (top-24) territory next season. A jump a little further, into the top-20 in standard scoring leagues, is well within reach too. In dynasty leagues, 2020 looks like the time to get in on the ground floor here.

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The Kansas City Chiefs won their first AFC title in 50 years by using the usual “suspects” (fantasy football stars) to beat the Tennessee Titans, 35-24, in the AFC Championship game Sunday,

Head coach Andy Reid and his talented Chiefs staff should be praised for the balanced attack they used to defeat Tennessee.  They proved the best way to beat the Titans was don’t let running back Derrick Henry run the ball. Henry carried the ball 19 times (well below average) for 69 yards (also below his average) and one touchdown and spent most of the second half watching the Chiefs  control the clock and the game.

The championship game was almost a perfect balance in time of possession (29 minutes and 50 seconds for the Chiefs to the TItans’ 30 minutes and 10 seconds).  And Kansas City ran the ball 27 times and attempted 35 passes.

Though the Chiefs fell behind 17-7, they scored the next 28 points thanks to usual suspects Patrick Mahomes,  Damien WIliams and Tyreek Hill scoring touchdowns.  The play that most exemplified Kansas City’s determination to claim the AFC crown was Mahomes’ 27-yard run for a touchdown to wrap up the scoring in the first half.

he play that sealed the victory was a 60-yard touchdown pass from Mahomes to wide receiver Sammy Watkins.  Watkins, who had not caught a touchdown pass since week #1 of the season, led all Chief receivers with seven catches for 114 yards.

Who would have expected Mahomes to do as much damage with his legs as his passing arm? He led the Chiefs’ rushing attack with eight carries for 53 yards.  He also completed 23 passes for 204 yards and three touchdowns.

Kansas City running back Damien Williams made the ground game work by rushing for 45 yards on 17 carries and running for a touchdown.  He also caught five passes for 44 yards.

Chief wide receiver Tyreek Hill caught five passes for 67 yards and two touchdowns, while tight end Travis Kelce had a quiet three catches for 30 yards.

For Tennessee, quarterback Ryan Tannehill played as well as could be expected by completing 21 of 31 passes for 209 yards and two touchdowns.   The Titans QB tossed the ball to eight different receivers.

Now the Kansas Chiefs will return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1970.

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With the loss of Chris Godwin, to go with last week’s loss of Mike Evans, Breshad Perriman is set up to become the WR1 for the Bucccaneers with residual fantasy impact.

For the second time in as many games, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost one of their top wide receivers to a hamstring injury. Chris Godwin left Sunday’s game against the Detroit Lions with a hamstring injury, which coupled with the loss of Mike Evans to a similar injury in Week 14 pushed the door wide open for Breshad Perriman. The former first-round pick delivered big too, with five catches for 113 yards and three touchdowns against the Lions.

After Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians said the injury didn’t look good, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reported Monday that Godwin is expected to miss Week 16 against the Houston Texans. Week 17 against the Atlanta Falcons won’t mean anything, so there’s a solid chance Godwin is out for the season like Evans.

With one game left to be played on the Week 15 schedule, Godwin is the second-highest scoring fantasy wide receiver in full-point PPR scoring. Evans, even with that missed game Sunday, sits in a tie at WR6. Together, they will leave behind 17.6 targets per game.

Including his big game against Detroit, Perriman has at least 70 yards and five targets in three straight games, with touchdowns in the last two. He’s now in line for more work as Tampa Bay’s newly anointed No.1 wide receiver for Jameis Winston, in one of the highest volume passing attacks in the NFL.

Entering Week 15, with recent improvement presenting a bit of false narrative, the Texans were in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. They still have a vulnerable secondary, and it’s not a stretch to compare Perriman to Titans’ wide receiver A.J. Brown. On Sunday against Houston, Brown had eight receptions (on 13 targets) for 114 yards and a touchdown.

Perriman has quickly become a must-add in fantasy for the coming week, and as of this writing he’s owned in just 11 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 9.1 percent of ESPN leagues. Week 17 against the Falcons is also a favorable-looking matchup, if it matters in your league or as you hunt for DFS options.

Losing Godwin just ahead of championship week in most leagues is obviously not ideal, as losing Evans last week also wasn’t. But the Buccaneers’ top wide receiver for the rest of the season has fallen into the laps of fantasy owners, and Perriman is set to deliver WR1 numbers for his real team as well as fantasy teams in Week 16 and 17.

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With Ju Ju Smith-Schuster likely to miss another game, Diontae Johnson has a clearer path to fantasy production in Week 15.

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson had a nice game in Week 14 against the Arizona Cardinals, with six receptions for 60 yards and a touchdown, one carry for 16 more yards while adding an 85-yard punt return for a touchdown. A repeat in Week 15 against the Buffalo Bills is highly unlikely, but Johnson’s outlook has gotten rosier quickly.

After missing the previous three games,  Ju Ju Smith-Schuster knee, concussion) was tentatively in line to return to action this week. But he left Thursday’s practice early after aggravating his knee issue, and he’s now not expected to play against the Bills on Sunday night.

Though James Washington has popped up as a fantasy option in recent weeks, being down to Devlin Hodges under center is not good for the Steelers’ pass offense. This week’s matchup against Buffalo looks particularly stifling, as they entered Week 15 allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers (Yahoo!, 0.5-point PPR scoring). But there is a path for Johnson to find success.

The Bills have one of the top cornerbacks in the league in Tre’Davious White. But he lines up on the left side, the offense’s right side. That has led to opponents avoiding him, and as James Koh of Yahoo! cited the Bills have allowed the sixth-most yards in the league to the left side and that’s where Johnson primarily operates.

Johnson has at least five targets in three straight games, in four of his last five and in five of his last seven. Over the last two games, with Hodges back in as the starter, Johnson has a 32.5 percent target share (13 targets on 40 attempts).

Johnson is not a top-tier fantasy starter for Week 15. But for those who have had their wide receiver depth dinged by injuries,  there’s potential as a WR3/WR4 in deep leagues and he’s worth thinking about as a contrarian play in DFS.

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