Running back Aaron Jones was a huge reason the Green Bay Packers made it to the NFC Championship Game, but are we overvaluing his 2020 fantasy draft stock?
The Green Bay Packers made it to the NFC Championship game a season ago. While Aaron Rodgers flourished per usual at quarterback, he got some help from another Aaron on the ground in third-year pro Aaron Jones out of UTEP. He rushed for 1,084 yards on 236 carries for a league-high 16 touchdowns. He’ll be a top-10 fantasy running back in 2020, but will he be overvalued?
The Fantasy Footballers all see Jones a top-10 running back next fall but have varying opinions on if he’s poised to lead the league in rushing touchdowns again. Andy Holloway points out games where Jones disappeared from the Packers offense. This is why he only has him as RB10 heading into next season.
Mike Wright is more optimistic about Jones’ 2020 fantasy campaign, as he has him as RB7. The reason Wright is higher on Jones than the rest of his colleagues is he believes his dominance as a goal-line back is repeatable for him. Jones was able to find pay dirt from five yards out or less plenty of times last season. He doesn’t see that skill set of his dissipating anytime soon.
Jason Moore doesn’t like Jones’ fantasy upside as much as Wright, but slightly more than Holloway. He agrees Jones’ red-zone efficiency can be recreated next year, as Packers head coach Matt LaFleur will have no problem giving him the rock with goal to go. However, Moore is concerned about Jones’ lack of volume when compared to other bell-cows across the league.
Overall, Jones is likely to be a second-tier RB1 fantasy running back. You’re still going to want to draft guys like Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey ahead of him. However, you can still win your fantasy league with Jones as your No. 1 back, as long as you have a great receiving corps to complement him.
Ultimately, Jones is a slight regression candidate in fantasy, but not a substantial one. If he’s your RB2 in your league for some reason, you have a great opportunity to beat your fantasy opponents to a pulp. Where the variance in his fantasy value lies is in his ability to find pay dirt outside of goal-to-go situations. While he’s slightly overvalued, he’ll still be a great fantasy player for 2020.